Cancel Bear vs. CBS, week 25: 'Criminal Minds: Beyond Borders' is likely to be two and out – TVbytheNumbers

CBS’ renew/cancel standings for week 25 of the 2016-17 season take a dim view of a second-year series.

Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.

ShowStatus18-49 ratingRenew/Cancel Index
Elementary (O)? ?0.67-0.03
Pure GeniusCanceled0.850.15
Doubt (O)Canceled0.70.0
Training Day?0.750.05
Code Black (O)? ?0.970.27
The Odd Couple (O)? ?1.010.31
Ransom (Sat.)? ?0.43-0.09
Criminal Minds: Beyond Borders (O)? ?0.90.2
Life in Pieces? ? ? ?1.310.61
Criminal Minds (O)? ? ? ?1.410.71
Blue Bloods (F) (O)? ? ? ?1.191.00
Hawaii Five-0 (F) (O)? ? ? ? ?1.211.03
MacGyver (F) (O)? ? ? ?1.110.89
Mom? ? ? ?1.450.75
NCIS: Los Angeles (O)? ? ? ?1.390.69
2 Broke Girls? ? ? ?1.360.66
Man with a Plan (O)? ? ? ?1.330.63
Superior Donuts (O)? ? ? ?1.380.68
Bull (O)? ? ? ?1.510.81
The Great Indoors (O)? ? ? ?1.530.83
Kevin Can Wait (O)? ? ? ?1.761.06
The Big Bang Theory? ? ? ? ?3.272.57
Madam Secretary (O)? ? ? ? ?0.950.25
NCIS: New Orleans (O)? ? ? ? ?1.210.51
Scorpion (O)? ? ? ? ?1.220.52
NCIS (O)Renewed1.821.12

Note: Because of Nielsen delays, averages for Sunday shows are through March 5. March 12 ratings will be factored in next week.

It’s only been a week. But when that week includes a premiere at your lowest rating to date, that’s enough.

So, sorry, “Criminal Minds: Beyond Borders.” It’s likely not to return next season.

“Beyond Borders” was maybe less of a reach than some other marginal renewals last season – its ratings were below CBS’ average but in line with several other shows that returned. But it’s immediately below the 1.0 line among adults 18-49 and not very likely to get back above it.

CBS looks due for some housecleaning among its 10 p.m. dramas next season. “Beyond Borders” is likely to get swept away.

Key:

DSWDead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
?sure bet to be canceled by May 2017
? ?likely to be canceled by May 2017
? ? ?tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017
? ? ? ?likely to be renewed by May 2017
? ? ? ? ?sure bet to be renewed by May 2017

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number. Any scripted show on Saturdays will use the same formula.

Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

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